"This is what happens when an unstoppalbe force meets and immovable object. You are truly incorruptible aren't you? You won't kill me out of some misplaced sense of self-righteousness. And I won't kill you because you're just too much fun. I think you and I are destined to do this forever...
I don't want to kill you! What would I do without you?...No, no, No! No. You...you...complete me."
In some East Asian philosophies, it is said that everything functions on a balance between yin and yang. The world is in a constant battle of opposites: good and evil, loud and soft, strong and weak, North and South. In high school chemistry class we called it equilibrium and defined it as, "the condition of a system in which competing influences are in balance." To upset the equilibrium would send the whole system into a spiral.
As I'm sure that anyone with any interest in Korea already knows, the Korean peninsula has existed in this state of yin and yang for the past 60 years. Yes, no treaty has ever been signed, and the peninsula has been in a cold war since 1950. But long gone are the days where 'war' meant anything more than empty threats, propaganda, weapons testing, and the a few, very rare armed confrontations.
Unfortunately, the latter was the case on March 26, 2010, when the ROKS Cheonan mysteriously sank near the sea border with North Korea and 46 young South Korean crewmen, many of whom were likely fulfilling their 2-year military obligation, met their ill-fated end. Immediately, an investigation was launched into the cause of the accident. Rumors flew around about stray water mines and mistakes by the US navy. But the one explanation that no one wanted to hear was that the sinking of the Cheonan was at the hands of Kim Jong-il and his North Korean 'invincible' military. Nearly two months after the incident, that's exactly the conclusion that was reached.
Immediately after that incident, tensions rose between the two Koreas. To the outside world, it may have seemed that the peninsula was spiraling into territory unknown since the ceasefire was signed in 1953. Lee Myung-bak, The South Korean president, took a harsher stance on inter-Korean relations than he or many of his predecessors have before, by freezing trade, reestablishing propaganda channels to the North, and refusing to rule out the possibility of armed retaliation if any further unprovoked attacks of ROK ('Repulic of Korea,' the South) territories or properties. The UN gave their support. China remained largely neutral, though subsequent rumors showed the likelihood that they would support South Korea, if absolutely necessary. The international media was in a frenzy.
North Korea's response? Total refusal of responsibility. The rest of the world had seen the evidence, but according to NK's big-brother media, they had nothing to do with it. And if the US, UN, or ROK choose to respond too harshly, Seoul would be turned into a "sea of fire" within 5 minutes.
Things quickly cooled down, however, until November 23, 2010, when the North attacked again, this time in a slightly less undeniable fashion. Seemingly out of nowhere, though the US-ROK armies were holding their yearly maritime drills amid North Korean warnings to cease, dozens of artillery shells where launched at the South Korean Yeonpyeong Island, killing two soldiers and two civilians. Unlike the attack a few months earlier, this confrontation was a direct attack on a civilian area. In fact, it was the first since the ceasefire was signed in 1953. Again, tensions were high. Were we doomed to be swallowed in a sea of fire that would spark an apocalyptic nuclear holocaust? Some were more than a little concerned. Military presence was definitely upped, and I'm sure many expats began tracing their escape routes home. It looked like all-out war was inevitable; at least that's what it looked like to anyone watching CNN or reading the NY Times. And then...
...nothing.
Just like every other confrontation between the two Koreas, at least those that I've witnessed in the three-and-a-half years that I've lived here, the situation never escalated beyond that point of no return. In time, life was back to normal.
Since those confrontations, the general population in South Korea has accepted the obvious explanations; North Korea was, and still is, in an unstable condition of famine and intense poverty, then-leader Kim Jong-Il's health was in question, and there was no known successor to the North Korean Communist throne. Shortly after the Yeonpyeong incident, Kim Jong-Un was named a four-star general and unveiled as the eventual replacement for his father. For a nation that has based so much of it's identity and resources upon it's claimed million-man army, destined to "save" South Korea and reunite the Korean peninsula, this seemed like nothing more than an internal power play. A chance to blow up a few bombs, take a few pictures, and chalk-up one or two "great victories" for the next-in-line. In other words, it was an attempt by the North Korean army and propaganda machine to begin building the foundation for a new personality cult for Kim Jong-Un. A personality cult that worked so well for the first two Kims and would be absolutely essential for ensuring a smooth transition in the event Kim Jong-Il were to die.
And then it happened. The skied glowed red above sacred Mount Paektu, the impenetrable sheet of ice at the heart of the mystical volcano cracked with a deafening roar, and Kim Jong-Il was no more. The official report is that he died of a massive heart attack, although the true cause of death is still in debate, with conspiracy theories of a possible murder still circulating. The bottom line, however, is that he's dead as a doornail. Gone. Vamoose. And now's the time for Kim Jong-Un, the 'Great Successor,' to step into the batter's box.
Or is he? As in the incidents mentioned above, the Korean peninsula is once again in a state of uncertainty and confusion. Little is generally known about the new Kim, and it's unknown whether he'll continue along the erratic and merciless policies of his father, or if he'll push North Korea into a new era, resembling more of modern-day China than Stalinist Russia. But that's not the concern at this point in time. The real question, is, Did Kim Jong-Il die too soon? In only one year since he was named successor, has Kim Jong-Un been able to build up enough of a following to successfully convince his elder comrades (those much older, much more experienced, and likely to have killed a few hundred more people) and his starving population that he is the rightful replacement to rule North Korea? At this point, it's still anyone's guess, but the media has not been silent. Rumors of a power struggle, revolution, and even war have been circulating. The US and South Korean militaries have been put on high alert to watch for unusual movements along the border. Everyone, except the South Korean general population, is caught in a state of impatient uncertainty. So far, at least, things seem to be going smoothly. But in the weeks and months to come, no one really knows.
So what's the deal? Will North Korea start bombing? Should we be concerned about a new Korean War? Is this the time for South Korea to take advantage of the confusion, step in, and reunite their nation? Are the doomsday predictions for 2012 coming true? Personally, for whatever my opinion is worth, I think there's still a long way to go before any of that happens.
Firstly, you have to consider what either side would have to gain from such a war that, if it left anyone alive, would have massive social, political, and economic rammifications. For the South, it would mean the inheriting of 20+ million people (many of whom are reportedly eating opium to stay alive), run-down cities, ruined farmland, failed building and damming projects, and 60 years of political brainwashing. It would put a strain on the world's 11th largest economy that could me more fatal than war itself. Though traditional attachments of reuniting the two Koreas sounds good on paper, experts suggest that the split is already 10 times worse than it was at the time of the German reunification. Making Korea whole again could tear the heart of the South Korean economy, and that is something that most Koreans in the South know their country just couldn't handle.
From the perspective of the North, it gets a bit more complicated. To North Koreans, the South is the yin to their yang. While the rest of the world looks on them with concern, they are taught that the South Korea are the ones worthy of pity, victims to the oppression of the "American imperialistic bastards." Compared to South Korea, North Korea is a paradise. They have nothing to envy, and as Korea's better half, it is their duty to rescue their blood-brothers in the South, reunite the Korean people, and make big, happy socialist utopia. Hard to believe, considering what we know about the living conditions in North Korea, but understandable, considering that all information and news coming in from the outside world gets filtered through and totally warped by the North's propaganda machine. If that's all you've ever heard your entire life, it's likely that you'll trust it to be true.
So why, then, if North Korea is so great and South Korea is so worthy of pity doesn't North Korea just go ahead and "rescue" the Korean people? I think the answer is simple. Because that wouldn't solve anything. From what I understand to be true, it is that unfulfilled promise that keeps North Korea standing. According to the North Korean rhetoric, Korea is not divided for political reasons. The country is, in a sense, sick. The only thing that will fix it is reunification. And the only people trustable enough to accomplish that is the Party. So...despite facing ungodly working conditions, unlivable living conditions, terrible health, little rest, virtually no food, and constant threats against their self and families, individuals willing sacrifice themselves for the greater good. South Koreans are said to sacrifice themselves for their employers (ironically, however, with eventual personal gain in mind), and North Koreans do it for the Party. North Koreans know that they are hungry, but they feel like their sacrifices are for something better, helping return Korea to it's rightful, unified state.
If that's true, however, wouldn't that increase, not decrease, the likelihood of all-out war on the Korean peninsula? Not really. Although North Korean people may be clueless to the outside world, the leaders are not. They know they would never win such a war against a healthier, better equipped South Korean army and it's American ally. Beyond that, the ones controlling the army are the highly privileged people in society. They have nothing to gain, personally, from starting a war, whether they win or not. Except for the case of an internal power struggle, which is a concern worth considering at the moment, war would be a no-win situation for those who start it. And as North Korean history shows, the personal gain of those on top is all that the Party really cares about.
But let's just say, as a matter of discussion, that there is as war, and North Korea does win. Then what? As I mentioned above, North Korea is a starving nation. People are hungry. They are putting their own interests aside, in the name of reuniting the Korean peninsula. But if they were successful in accomplishing that one thing that is so central to their identity and purpose in life, they've got nothing else. And...they're still hungry. Personally, I believe that it would be at that point (no matter how much propaganda they've heard) that people would start listening to their natural human needs and realize, "Oh wait. Having food to eat is good." The Party, having already accomplished the one thing that they staked their reputation on, would have nothing to promise it's people that would keep them quiet (even North Korea has no interest in expanding beyond the Korean borders), and revolution would likely erupt. Even if THAT doesn't happen, the 50-or-so million people who are now living in South Korea would be brought in without the adequate brainwashing, knowing of the lies of the Party and of a better life, and talk would spread. Surely, if hunger didn't spark revolution, rumors would. And revolutions aren't good for those on top.
So all I'm trying to say is this. Even though things heat up at points and the international media constantly stirs fears of the end of the world, I just don't see it happening. Those higher-ups in North Korea are going to keep sipping their expensive whiskey and passing out Swiss watches, with the occasional military threat thrown in because that is, after all, how they can excuse their own lavishness and gluttony (Kim Jong-Un is pretty fat, if you haven't noticed) at the expense of their starving population. And South Korean lawmakers are going to keep passing out free lunches and occasionally setting off tear gas bombs in congress until further notice. Both sides are just a little too unwilling to share to have it any other way.
That said, I do believe that peaceful reunification will happen at some point down the line. I don't now when or how, but I expect that belief in Korean bloodline is far too strong to allow continued separation once both sides have come to their senses. In the meantime, however, both Koreas are going to keep chasing each other around like Tom and Jerry (which Korean elementary students love, by the way). Because, after all, if Tom eats the mouse or Batman kills the Joker, what's left to keep them occupied?
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